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Market Report - November 2016

Market Report

A surprise Donald Trump victory in the US elections lifted US equities to record highs as investors considered the potential policy implications of a Trump administration.  The S&P 500 index gained 3.42% on the month while the Dow Jones index added 5.41%.  The Nasdaq Composite and Russell 200 indices increased by 2.59% and 10.99%, respectively.

In Europe, markets were more subdued as focus turned towards the Italian referendum as well as the upcoming France and Germany elections due in 2017.  The Eurostoxx 50 fell by 0.12% while the CAC 40 gained 1.53% and the DAX decreased by 0.23%.  In the UK, the FTSE 100 declined by 2.45%, while cable recovered slightly following Brexit related news from the High Court that parliamentary approval must be obtained before Article 50 can be triggered.

In Asia, the Shanghai Composite gained 4.82% while the Hang Seng index fell by 0.63%.  In Japan, further weakening of the Yen against its peers saw the Nikkei add 5.07% on the month.

Commodities were mixed in November, with WTI and Brent crude gaining 5.51% and 4.49% to end the month at $49.44 and $50.47, respectively.  This was as a result of OPEC’s announcement of a cut in oil production by 1.2 million barrels a day.  Natural gas gained 10.77%.  Gold fell by 8.15% while silver declined by 7.71%.  Copper gained 20.03% as the market anticipated the new Trump administration to focus on infrastructure spending.  The S&P GSCI index saw an increase of 2.53%.

US treasuries sold off sharply following the unexpected Trump victory; yields increased across all maturities but with the overall curve steepening as longer duration bonds suffered greater losses.  Six month treasury yields gained 13bps to 0.56%, while two and five year yields added 27bps and 54bps ending at 1.11% and 1.84%, respectively.  The longer dated ten and thirty year yields increased by 56bps and 45bps to 2.38% and 3.03%. 

Government bond yields also saw an increase over the month.  German 10 year yields increased 11 bps to 0.28% while French 10 year yields added 29bps to 0.75%.  Spanish and Italian 10 year yields gained 35bps and 33bps to end the month at 1.55% and 1.99%, respectively.