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J.P.Morgan - Quarterly Perspectives Europe Q1 2015

Fund Manager Updates

How to play the stronger dollar

 Why is the dollar rising?

There are three key reasons for the dollar rise:

  •  Divergent economic performance: the US economy looks to have grown at a healthy rate of 3% in the second half of 2014 and is particularly strong when compared to the loss in economic momentum in the eurozone, Japan and China in 2014.
  • Expected monetary policy divergence in 2015: the US Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates, unlike either the European Central Bank or the Bank of Japan who are pursuing expansionary monetary policies.
  • Reduced US borrowing from the rest of the world: America’s current account deficit has fallen sharply in recent years, largely as a result of its growing energy independence. Barely a third of the energy that the US consumed last year was imported, down from 60% in 2005.

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