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J.P.Morgan - Quarterly Perspectives Europe Q1 2014

Fund Manager Updates

Coming up next, more ECB action

 They’ve only just begun

Despite an improving economic backdrop and rising asset prices, it seems probable that the European Central Bank (the ECB) will provide further stimulus in 2014. Although the eurozone is growing, the recovery is by no means robust, and there has been growing concern about the very low rate of inflation.

  •  Although eurozone inflation hit a low of 0.7% in October, the ECB’s official forecasts suggest it will rise during the first part of 2014.
  •  However, most private forecasters expect inflation to remain well below the ECB’s target of 2% for several years, and ECB president Mario Draghi has said he anticipates that inflation expectations will remain subdued.
  • Though the risk of deflation is minimal, the very low rate of inflation could pose risks to the peripheral countries by making it harder for them to increase competitiveness and lower their debt ratios.

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